The Suns are on the lookout for their third win this season towards the Mavericks. Phoenix has been phenomenal on the street and Dallas is the most well liked crew within the league—one thing has to offer.
Out west, the Warriors are going for the season sweep towards the Pacers, having crushed Indiana on the street earlier this season. The Pacers beat the Lakers Wednesday evening and have a fast turnaround towards the perfect residence crew within the NBA.
Today’s visitor picker is SI author Wilton Jackson.
Season report: 74-73-1
Guest pickers: 57-85
Check the Latest NBA Lines at SI Sportsbook
Phoenix Suns (34-9) vs. Dallas Mavericks (26-19)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Suns -2.5 (-118) | Mavericks +2.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Suns (-150) | Mavericks (+125)
Total: Under 216.5 (-110) | Over 216.5 (-110)
Injuries: Suns C Deandre Ayton—Out; Mavericks F Sterling Brown—Out
Suns Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 8-2
ATS Record: 24-19
O/U Record: 20-23
Points Per Game/Rank: 112.5/3
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 104.6/6
Phoenix is on a 4-recreation successful streak, with every victory approaching the street. The Suns are 17-4 in away video games, the perfect mark within the league, and have received six consecutive street video games. Devin Booker is on a tear over the past three video games. Phoenix’s main scorer has 30 or extra factors in three straight video games and went for a season-excessive 48 factors on Monday towards the Spurs. Center Deandre Ayton missed that recreation, his eleventh this season, and received’t play Thursday towards Dallas.
Mavericks Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 9-1
ATS Record: 23-21
O/U Record: 13-30-2
Points Per Game/Rank: 105.5/25
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 102.6/2
January has been an excellent month for Dallas, which is 9-1 to date in 2022. The Mavericks are winners of 4 in a row and received their final six video games at residence. Thursday brings a tough problem on the second evening of a again-to-again towards the highest crew within the league, although it comes on the heels of Luka Doncic pouring in 41 factors towards the Raptors. Dallas beat the Warriors and Bulls and ended the Grizzlies’ win streak throughout its latest stretch of phenomenal play.
Kyle Wood’s bets:
Spread choose: Mavericks +2.5
Doncic didn’t play the primary two occasions these groups met in November and Ayton did. Those video games, each performed in Phoenix, had been nonetheless determined by lower than 10 factors. Dallas’ latest performances towards a number of the league’s greatest groups offers me confidence that it may well not less than hold issues shut with the Suns, if not win outright. Ayton destroyed the Mavericks on the glass within the first two matchups—that received’t be the case on Thursday when he’s on the bench and Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis are higher in a position to end possessions on either side of the ball.
Over/Under choose: Under 216.5
Beyond Doncic’s particular person greatness, Dallas’ protection deserves credit score for the crew’s surge. The Mavericks are the second-greatest scoring protection in basketball, usually holding opponents under 100 factors. Phoenix isn’t far behind defensively, with sufficient prolonged wings to chase shooters off their spots and disrupt passing lanes. The Suns put up enormous level totals of their final two video games, albeit towards lesser competitors. I feel the Mavericks gradual them down and neither crew breaks 110.
Prop: Devin Booker Under 26.5
I don’t love betting towards a scorching scorer like this, however I feel that is the sport Booker’s scoring tear ends. This choose is in tandem with me taking the beneath. If Booker will get up into the 30s, Phoenix wins and this recreation goes over. I can see Dallas forcing the ball out of his hand—he’s taken 76 pictures over his final three video games. In the earlier two conferences between these groups, Booker went beneath this complete each occasions regardless of hoisting 20 pictures in every recreation.
Guest picker Wilton Jackson’s bets:
Spread choose: Suns -2.5
The Suns have already defeated the Mavericks twice this season and have received 14 of the final 17 conferences between the 2 groups. Both groups have performed effectively of their final 10 video games. While this recreation is in Dallas and Dončić—who didn’t play within the first two conferences because of left knee and ankle sprains—will probably be enjoying in Thursday’s recreation, I nonetheless just like the Suns to cowl, even with the absence of DeAndre Ayton within the lineup.
Over/Under choose: Over 216.5
The Mavericks enter this recreation having received 10 of their final 11 video games by holding their opponents to beneath 100 factors in eight of these video games and limiting their opponents to beneath 50% capturing in 21 consecutive video games. I don’t see that being the case on Thursday evening. Phoenix has averaged simply over 115 factors of their final 10 video games. One could take a look at the primary two conferences between the 2 groups and discover that just one—the Nov. 19 contest—of these matchups got here near the over/beneath for this recreation, which was 216. With Dončic enjoying on this recreation towards Phoenix—the one franchise he has recorded a number of 40-level video games towards in the course of the common season of his profession—I feel this will probably be a excessive-scoring affair. Don’t neglect Devin Booker can be coming off a season-excessive, 48-level efficiency.
Prop: Devin Booker Over 26.5 Points
Booker is coming off a monster 48-level efficiency towards the Spurs. An enormous piece of the Suns’ success final season and this season is the play of Ayton, who the Suns will probably be with out on Thursday. Booker is at the moment averaging 24.6 factors per recreation only one level shy of his common final season. I see him scoring greater than 26.5 towards Dallas. He has recorded 17 video games the place he scored greater than 25 factors this season. Not to say, in clutch-recreation conditions, Booker is capturing greater than 60% from the sector and 50% from past the arc.
D. Ross Cameron/USA TODAY Sports
Indiana Pacers (16-29) vs. Golden State Warriors (32-12)
Time: 10 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Pacers +11.5 (-110) | Warriors -11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Pacers (+550) | Warriors (-800)
Total: Under 217.5 (-110) | Over 217.5 (-110)
Injuries: Pacers C Myles Turner—Out; Pacers F T.J. Warren—Out; Warriors F Otto Porter Jr.—Out; Warriors F Draymond Green—Out
Pacers Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 2-8
ATS Record: 21-22-1
O/U Record: 21-24
Points Per Game/Rank: 107.9/18
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 108.8/16
Indiana was 5 video games beneath .500 slightly below a month in the past and has shortly fallen to 13 video games beneath. The Pacers scored a win Wednesday evening towards the Lakers and beat the Jazz at residence final week, however in any other case they’re piling up losses at an alarming fee with Myles Turner, one in all their greatest gamers, sidelined. Caris LeVert has been a welcome addition again to the lineup—he scored 30 factors in simply 27 minutes towards the Lakers in his third recreation again. Malcolm Brogdon additionally returned towards L.A. and will probably be energetic towards the Warriors.
Warriors Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 5-5
ATS Record: 25-17-2
O/U Record: 15-27-2
Points Per Game/Rank: 109.7/12
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 101.6/1
The Warriors haven’t received again-to-again video games since Jan. 3. Their 5-5 report this month has allowed groups just like the Grizzlies and Mavericks to start to catch up within the standings. Golden State nonetheless isn’t at full well being with Draymond Green and James Wiseman out of the lineup, however Klay Thompson, who scored 21 factors Tuesday in a win towards the Pistons, is steadily discovering his manner again. Steph Curry’s capturing struggles have continued—he’s averaging lower than 20 factors per recreation in January on 37% capturing.
Kyle Wood’s bets:
Spread choose: Warriors -11.5
The Pacers are visiting the hardest crew at residence within the league—Golden State is nineteen-3 on the Chase Center. Despite their latest struggles, the Warriors simply hold successful at residence and that may proceed Thursday towards a lesser, drained Pacers crew. Short-handed or not, Golden State wins this recreation by double-digits on the backs of a rotating solid of scorers—Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga—who can lead the crew in scoring when Curry’s shot isn’t falling.
Over/Under choose: Under 217.5
The Warriors’ power this season is their protection, not their offense, and I like them to restrict the Pacers to beneath 100 factors, simply as they’ve executed to seven of their final 10 visiting opponents. Indiana is a barely under-common protection, however Golden State hasn’t been one for working up the rating in the previous couple of weeks. I can see the Warriors cracking 110 towards Indiana, particularly at residence, however the Pacers will probably be severely restricted on offense and hold this recreation beneath.
Prop: Steph Curry Over 23.5 Points
This choose goes a bit towards the grain contemplating Curry’s latest performances. He’s failed to attain 20 in three straight video games. However, his makes an attempt in these three video games had been right down to 11, 15 and 11—he averages 20 makes an attempt per recreation this season. I feel this might be a get-proper recreation for Curry at residence. His three-level shot started to fall once more over his final two video games (8-18) and if he will get scorching from exterior in the way in which that solely he can, he can smash this complete.
Guest picker Wilton Jackson’s bets:
Spread choose: Warriors -11.5
Golden State sits second within the Western Conference proper now regardless of the Warriors going 5-5 of their final 10 and three of their final 5 losses towards the Timberwolves, the Bucks and the Grizzlies. The Warriors are nonetheless figuring some issues out from a personnel standpoint with the return of Thompson however with out Green, who suffered a left L5-S1 disc harm and has not performed in a recreation because the Warriors performed the Pelicans on Jan. 6. However, one thing to contemplate, Kuminga—who was within the beginning lineup for the Warriors on Tuesday—recorded his first double-double towards the Pistons. Golden State is nineteen-3 towards Eastern Conference opponents this season and an ideal 9-0 at residence. Between Curry, Thompson, Wiggins and Kuminga particularly, I just like the Warriors to cowl.
Over/Under choose: Under 217.5
The Warriors enter Thursday’s recreation because the league’s prime defensive rated crew. Indiana, nonetheless, is close to the underside at No. 22 in terms of defensive ranking. In the primary assembly between the 2 groups, the Warriors received the sport by two factors, 102-100. But, Thompson was not again but. The Pacers haven’t been that good defensively, which means the Golden State might be up for a excessive-scoring level complete if the Warriors come out capturing the ball. Wiggins is capturing a profession-greatest from the sector (.491 FG%) and from three-level vary (.423). Let’s not neglect what Thompson did to the Pacers in December 2016, scoring a profession-excessive 60 factors in 29 minutes and turning into the primary participant within the shot clock period to attain 60 factors in a recreation with fewer than half-hour performed. I’ll take the beneath on this one.
Prop: Klay Thompson Over 15.5 Points
I could also be having a little bit nostalgic second of the dominance that Thompson gave us earlier than the 2 huge accidents. However, within the 5 video games he has performed since his return, he’s averaging simply over 15 factors per recreation. If anybody can rating towards the Pacers, it’s Thompson. In his 5 video games—wherein the Warriors suffered losses in three of these video games, Thompson completed with lower than 15 factors. But, in Golden State’s wins the place Thompson performed, he averaged 19 factors between the 2 video games. I like Thompson to report greater than 15 factors on Thursday.
DFS Value Plays
(Prices based mostly on 7:30 p.m. principal slate)
PG Chris Paul, Suns (FD: $7,800 | DK: $7,500)
PG/SG Jalen Brunson, Mavericks ($7,100 | $6,500)
SG/SF Josh Hart, Pelicans ($6,500 | $6,300)
C/PF Kevon Looney, Warriors ($4,900 | $4,500)
C Jonas Valanciunas, Pelicans ($7,300 | $7,700)
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